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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
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    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
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  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
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    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
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    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #7 of 168

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150+200Zack Wheeler
Zack Wheeler · #7
V⁻ —VORP 102V⁺ —
Zack Wheeler

Zack Wheeler

SP·PHI
Compare
Compare
BF
431
K %
30.6%
BB %
6.5%
xwOBA
.257
PTS
324
PPG
17.05
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj1919113.085003.373.2126.8%6.6%20.3%————26814.12
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
59
94.3
FB Spin
81
2416
Extension
2026
19
19
110.3
10
3
0
0
2.69
3.17
30.6%
6.5%
24.1%
.257
.259
85.2%
44.6%
324
17.05
20252525154.7105002.682.9633.2%5.6%27.6%.247.26582.3%41.5%45718.28
20243434212.3167002.423.0028.4%6.6%21.8%.264.23980.9%43.1%60917.91
20233736219.7166003.402.9126.9%4.9%22.0%.278.28572.1%41.2%56315.22
20223232188.71310002.812.8826.8%5.6%21.2%.278.26975.4%46.4%47414.81
20213534220.01511002.902.5529.1%5.4%23.7%.260.29073.6%50.9%58616.74
2020121275.343002.993.2718.4%5.6%12.8%.294.30775.2%56.6%15012.50
20193232198.3118004.133.5723.6%6.0%17.6%.301.31171.4%44.7%37211.63
20183030184.3127003.423.1524.0%7.4%16.6%.278.28773.0%46.1%40813.60
2017191894.348005.155.2020.9%10.3%10.6%.339.31774.1%48.1%924.84
93
7.09
Results
xwOBA
97
.257
Barrel %
83
5.9
Hard-Hit %
82
34.9
K %
95
30.6
BB %
74
6.5
Chase %
97
36.5
Whiff %
89
27.8