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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #84 of 236

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150+200Troy Johnston
Troy Johnston · #60
V⁻ -4VORP 3V⁺ 53
Troy Johnston

Troy Johnston

1B / OF·COL
Compare
Compare
PA
261
H
73
HR
3
AVG
.312
xwOBA
.331
PPG
2.16
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj56240.259.320.387.128.31620.4%6.9%13.5%561132.01—
202669261.312
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
44
.331
xBA
84
.285
xSLG
.376
.440
.128
.331
17.6%
7.7%
9.9%
3
4
149
2.16
—
202544121.277.331.420.143.34121.5%6.6%14.9%42571.30—
32
.394
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
30
88.5
Median EV
36
91.6
90th % EV
14
101.5
Barrel %
4
2.6
Hard-Hit %
26
37.2
Sweet-Spot %
97
45.0
Bat Speed
Avg
22
68.4
Median
33
70.6
90th %
26
74.7
Plate Discipline
Chase %
18
34.6
Whiff %
51
21.1
K %
64
17.6
BB %
26
7.7
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
98
≈ 41th pctl
Chase cost
-4.2r
51 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.4r
40 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
48.4%
250 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.63
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
21213145+42%12+14%7+20%103+27%11+6%17-29%17-37%19-56%9425+30%10-47%19-33%15-11%9+57%735+50%6+71%7+43%733111CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 250