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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #59 of 236

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150+200Spencer Steer
Spencer Steer · #59
V⁻ -30VORP 17V⁺ 22
Spencer Steer

Spencer Steer

1B / 2B / OF·CIN
Compare
Compare
PA
279
H
60
HR
11
AVG
.245
xwOBA
.360
PPG
2.14
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj76327.240.322.416.176.32921.2%9.8%11.4%1151682.22—
202670279.245
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
69
.360
xBA
40
.250
xSLG
.332
.429
.184
.360
21.5%
10.4%
11.1%
11
3
150
2.14
—
2025145568.238.313.411.173.29522.7%9.0%13.7%2172891.99—
2024162658.224.319.401.177.32520.8%10.9%9.9%20253902.41—
2023161667.271.357.462.191.33220.8%10.2%10.6%23163962.46—
202231108.211.306.326.115.27924.1%10.2%13.9%20361.16—
72
.463
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
41
89.5
Median EV
61
93.5
90th % EV
35
103.8
Barrel %
77
12.8
Hard-Hit %
29
38.5
Sweet-Spot %
76
39.0
Bat Speed
Avg
36
69.5
Median
36
70.9
90th %
25
74.6
Plate Discipline
Chase %
75
24.7
Whiff %
46
21.9
K %
43
21.5
BB %
59
10.4
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
101
≈ 53th pctl
Chase cost
-4.5r
49 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.7r
46 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
47.4%
291 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.50
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
11332+0%7+57%7+45%11+40%1022+67%12-18%17-21%19-28%18+8%1255+33%6-36%11-35%17-41%27-33%6214+44%9+8%12-9%113323331321CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 291