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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #134 of 168

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150+200Shane Bieber
Shane Bieber · #60
V⁻ —VORP -42V⁺ —
Shane Bieber

Shane Bieber

SP·TOR
Compare
Compare
BF
195
K %
16.4%
BB %
11.8%
xwOBA
.399
PTS
42
PPG
4.67
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj231487.054003.773.6022.0%6.0%16.0%————1687.31
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

195 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
11
91.0
FB Spin
83
2427
2026
9
9
42.7
3
2
0
0
5.48
5.96
16.4%
11.8%
4.6%
.399
.298
77.1%
44.3%
42
4.67
2025121159.063003.664.3723.3%4.4%18.9%.328.27282.1%49.1%13110.92
20243318.030000.000.4344.4%2.2%42.2%.264.333100.0%50.0%8227.33
20232222134.776003.683.5520.0%6.4%13.6%.340.29474.5%47.5%26011.82
20223535218.01410003.063.0625.0%4.5%20.5%.294.28476.0%48.8%52214.91
20211818106.394002.962.7733.1%8.1%25.0%.300.33180.6%44.9%29516.39
2020131382.082002.302.2641.1%7.1%34.0%.251.28885.8%48.4%28521.92
20193634220.3159013.313.1530.1%4.6%25.5%.296.30076.8%44.8%58016.11
20182019114.7115004.553.1724.3%4.7%19.6%.315.35669.4%46.5%22311.15
Extension
57
6.57
Results
xwOBA
0
.399
Barrel %
7
10.7
Hard-Hit %
9
44.3
K %
8
16.4
BB %
4
11.8
Chase %
33
29.4
Whiff %
37
21.1