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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
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    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
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    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
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    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
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    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. RP peers

Rank #12 of 508

Each bar is one RP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100Riley O'Brien
Riley O'Brien · #12
V⁻ —VORP 45V⁺ —
Riley O'Brien

Riley O'Brien

RP·STL
Compare
Compare
BF
133
K %
24.1%
BB %
8.3%
xwOBA
.314
PTS
154
PPG
4.97
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj43043.0322023.363.2324.4%9.4%15.1%————1964.56
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

133 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
98
98.2
FB Spin
33
2209
2026
31
0
31.3
3
3
18
1
3.73
3.00
24.1%
8.3%
15.8%
.314
.310
67.3%
55.3%
154
4.97
202543049.031662.023.5322.5%11.0%11.5%.302.26283.3%55.2%1663.86
202410010.000019.006.0023.9%17.4%6.5%.384.43863.1%38.5%00.00
2022415.000117.202.3020.0%20.0%0.0%.242.43855.6%100.0%102.50
2021111.3010013.5026.3522.2%33.3%-11.1%.627.000136.4%50.0%-8-8.00
Extension
83
6.79
Results
xwOBA
61
.314
Barrel %
94
4.7
Hard-Hit %
58
38.8
K %
69
24.1
BB %
47
8.3
Chase %
58
31.3
Whiff %
83
26.1
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
107
≈ 77th pctl
Stuff+
118
if they swing
Command+
105
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
114
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
4.0%
6 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.044
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.002 worse than avg · 49 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
-0.027
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.057 better than avg · 4 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 150 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
SinkerSI
58.5%97.82209+4.6+16.96.8028.2%50.6%36.7%38.5%28.6%0.175
SweeperST
24.4%83.22441

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE31°100 PITCHSAMPLE
SISTSLCH
Usage59%24%16%1%
MPH97.883.291.190.4
RHP Avg94.383.386.786.9
-3.4
-17.1
6.77
38.5%
21.2%
18.2%
26.9%
18.8%
0.000
SliderSL
16.3%91.12470+4.6-2.56.8115.4%50.0%18.2%36.4%33.3%0.221
ChangeupCH
0.7%90.41809+6.5+16.16.80—0.0%0.0%0.0%——

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTSI · 20″SL · 22″ST · 26″CH · 29″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′SI · 18″SL · 34″ST · 53″CH · 37″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.06′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
SISTSLCH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
SISTSLCH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
SISTSLCH

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.