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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. RP peers

Rank #14 of 508

Each bar is one RP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100Pete Fairbanks
Pete Fairbanks · #14
V⁻ —VORP 39V⁺ —
Pete Fairbanks

Pete Fairbanks

RP·MIA
Compare
Compare
BF
90
K %
32.2%
BB %
12.2%
xwOBA
.301
PTS
79
PPG
3.59
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj39039.0431723.483.4025.9%9.0%16.9%————1764.52
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

90 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
61
94.4
FB Spin
89
2442
2026
22
1
20.0
3
3
9
2
6.75
4.75
32.2%
12.2%
20.0%
.301
.318
55.1%
22.9%
79
3.59
202563061.7462712.773.5424.2%7.4%16.8%.275.24469.9%45.8%2704.29
202448047.0532313.453.2923.8%9.2%14.6%.318.26269.6%42.7%2264.71
202351047.3242622.472.4936.8%10.8%26.0%.253.24778.6%51.1%2645.18
202227025.300861.421.0543.7%3.4%40.3%.160.28686.0%53.3%1405.19
202152047.7475153.592.8529.5%11.1%18.4%.271.33168.0%42.3%1402.69
202036239.0633103.003.5933.1%11.9%21.2%.286.34186.0%48.4%1423.94
201921021.023236.864.9628.3%10.1%18.2%.349.35753.6%42.6%351.67
Extension
23
6.19
Results
xwOBA
72
.301
Barrel %
6
12.5
Hard-Hit %
70
37.5
K %
99
32.2
BB %
4
12.2
Chase %
99
36.3
Whiff %
86
27.0
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
109
≈ 81th pctl
Stuff+
109
if they swing
Command+
109
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
103
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
11.1%
13 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.043
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.000 worse than avg · 34 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
-0.034
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.063 better than avg · 5 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 117 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
43.6%96.72410+18.5+1.86.3222.7%43.2%29.5%44.0%11.1%0.431
CutterFC
35.6%89.3

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE53°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFFCSLCH
Usage44%36%19%2%
MPH96.789.382.292.7
RHP Avg95.089.886.786.9
2521
+4.1
-5.2
6.21
21.1%
44.4%
22.2%
35.0%
27.3%
0.296
SliderSL
18.8%82.22498-8.0-8.26.1644.4%63.2%57.9%57.1%66.7%0.017
ChangeupCH
2.0%92.72181+9.1+11.36.050.0%0.0%0.0%50.0%0.0%—

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 20″FC · 26″CH · 27″SL · 28″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 19″FC · 39″CH · 28″SL · 55″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.74′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFFCSLCH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFFCSLCH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFFCSLCH

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.