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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
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    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
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    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #28 of 168

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150+200Parker Messick
Parker Messick · #28
V⁻ —VORP 46V⁺ —
Parker Messick

Parker Messick

SP·CLE
Compare
Compare
BF
542
K %
25.1%
BB %
7.0%
xwOBA
.274
PTS
341
PPG
14.83
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj171788.055003.843.7022.6%8.0%14.7%————1629.54
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
40
93.4
FB Spin
13
2131
Extension
2026
23
23
136.7
9
6
0
0
2.57
3.20
25.1%
7.0%
18.1%
.274
.257
80.1%
45.0%
341
14.83
20257739.731002.722.9523.0%3.6%19.4%.274.35986.2%48.8%9113.00
49
6.47
Results
xwOBA
89
.274
Barrel %
91
5.2
Hard-Hit %
93
33.0
K %
73
25.1
BB %
64
7.0
Chase %
54
31.3
Whiff %
58
23.1
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
99
≈ 46th pctl
Stuff+
97
if they swing
Command+
104
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
89
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
10.3%
54 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.044
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.001 worse than avg · 155 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.025
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.005 better than avg · 31 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 524 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
35.0%93.22145+16.4+4.46.469.5%52.8%25.2%33.3%20.5%0.287
ChangeupCH
22.9%85.0

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE43°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFCHSLCUSIFC
Usage35%23%13%12%10%7%
MPH93.285.086.979.092.390.3
LHP Avg93.284.684.779.093.088.1
1783
+1.2
+14.4
6.22
45.1%
31.3%
33.7%
52.6%
39.5%
0.217
SliderSL
12.9%86.92355+5.0-6.26.4724.0%46.8%23.4%32.0%7.1%0.291
CurveballCU
12.1%79.02316-6.1-14.46.4312.5%34.1%25.0%31.0%0.0%0.159
SinkerSI
10.2%92.32038+10.3+12.86.410.0%70.3%24.3%36.4%16.7%0.387
CutterFC
6.9%90.32125+11.5-1.36.4310.0%40.0%20.0%26.7%0.0%0.203

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 15″FC · 17″SI · 18″SL · 22″CU · 22″CH · 22″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 25″FC · 35″SI · 29″SL · 43″CU · 64″CH · 46″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.16′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). LHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFCHSLCUSIFC-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFCHSLCUSIFC-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFCHSLCUSIFC

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. LHP.