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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #156 of 236

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150+200Owen Caissie
Owen Caissie · #60
V⁻ -54VORP -28V⁺ -61
Owen Caissie

Owen Caissie

OF·MIA
Compare
Compare
PA
198
H
37
HR
7
AVG
.209
xwOBA
.285
PPG
1.00
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj64276.234.307.397.163.31432.8%9.0%23.7%931001.56—
202663198.209
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

198 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
6
.285
xBA
1
.200
.275
.384
.175
.285
40.4%
7.1%
33.3%
7
3
63
1.00
—
20251227.192.222.346.154.23240.7%3.7%37.0%1070.58—
xSLG
26
.382
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
74
90.9
Median EV
75
94.8
90th % EV
93
109.3
Barrel %
80
13.7
Hard-Hit %
71
46.1
Sweet-Spot %
98
46.1
Bat Speed
Avg
74
72.7
Median
91
75.7
90th %
80
79.1
Plate Discipline
Chase %
51
28.9
Whiff %
5
32.2
K %
0
40.4
BB %
21
7.1
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
84
≈ 6th pctl
Chase cost
-5.3r
44 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-4.0r
50 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
40.2%
291 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-3.19
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
1533434+22%9+22%9+0%9+11%924+21%14+0%9-55%20-56%27-23%13+33%6+0%6+63%8+0%15-18%17-25%20-50%843+67%9+44%91531111CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 291