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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Nicky Lopez

Nicky Lopez

2B / 3B / SS·TEX
Compare
Compare
BF
13
K %
0.0%
BB %
15.4%
xwOBA
.437
PTS
-3
PPG
-1.50
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
2026101.000009.001.1014.3%0.0%14.3%.340.66775.0%50.0%-2-2.00
2025
2023 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

13 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
0
—
FB Spin
0
—
1
0
0.3
0
0
0
0
0.00
12.10
0.0%
50.0%
-50.0%
.362
.000
100.0%
0.0%
0
0.00
2023202.300007.7111.240.0%15.4%-15.4%.437.30087.0%36.4%-3-1.50
2022101.0000018.0029.100.0%0.0%0.0%.708.250500.0%33.3%-4-4.00
Extension
0
4.55
Results
xwOBA
0
.437
Barrel %
100
0.0
Hard-Hit %
6
45.5
K %
0
0.0
BB %
0
15.4
Chase %
8
25.0
Whiff %
0
6.3
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
-33
≈ 1th pctl
Stuff+
-29
if they swing
Command+
69
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
-35
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
66.7%
28 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.118
RV per pitch · league 0.048
+0.071 worse than avg · 4 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.086
RV per pitch · league 0.030
+0.055 worse than avg · 8 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 42 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
OtherFA
78.6%62.01565+18.0+6.94.558.3%33.3%24.2%22.7%0.0%0.464
EephusEP
21.4%54.3202

2023 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE38°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FAEP
Usage79%21%
MPH62.054.3
RHP Avg67.448.1
+3.1
+1.8
4.51
0.0%
33.3%
11.1%
33.3%
0.0%
0.346

2023 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFA · 16″EP · 18″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FA · 106″EP · 127″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (5.60′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2023 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FAEP-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FAEP-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FAEP

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.