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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. 1B peers

Rank #7 of 41

Each bar is one 1B, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100Nick Kurtz
Nick Kurtz · #7
V⁻ -5VORP 37V⁺ 60
Nick Kurtz

Nick Kurtz

1B·ATH
Compare
Compare
PA
436
H
90
HR
21
AVG
.254
xwOBA
.382
PPG
2.52
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj95409.263.369.519.256.38929.0%14.0%15.0%2342502.64—
202699436.254
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
92
.382
xBA
31
.242
xSLG
.394
.480
.226
.382
32.3%
18.1%
14.2%
21
7
249
2.52
—
2025118490.290.385.618.328.37630.8%12.9%17.9%3623573.03—
81
.479
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
94
93.1
Median EV
99
101.0
90th % EV
98
111.8
Barrel %
99
18.0
Hard-Hit %
99
57.3
Sweet-Spot %
85
40.3
Bat Speed
Avg
98
76.4
Median
96
76.9
90th %
93
81.6
Plate Discipline
Chase %
85
23.3
Whiff %
2
33.4
K %
2
32.3
BB %
99
18.1
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
104
≈ 66th pctl
Chase cost
-6.0r
63 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-4.4r
61 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
39.0%
441 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.35
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
523513+0%7+0%10-27%11-42%12+0%1032+25%12+44%16-40%30-31%26-25%16+38%83+17%12+43%21-42%26-29%21-6%18+13%154+29%7+20%15+43%21+11%9+33%154+0%6335234CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 441