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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. C peers

Rank #44 of 67

Each bar is one C, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-300-200-1000+100Nick Fortes
Nick Fortes · #44
V⁻ -24VORP -241V⁺ 10
Nick Fortes

Nick Fortes

C·TBR
Compare
Compare
PA
264
H
67
HR
4
AVG
.273
xwOBA
.282
PPG
1.61
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj55216.227.280.342.115.28116.8%5.6%11.2%51881.60—
202682264.273
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

264 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
6
.282
xBA
45
.249
.315
.380
.107
.282
12.1%
2.7%
9.4%
4
0
132
1.61
—
202588244.227.295.345.118.27019.3%5.7%13.6%51941.07—
2024102336.227.262.317.090.24612.2%3.3%8.9%401291.26—
2023100325.203.263.297.094.26418.2%5.2%13.0%641131.13—
202270241.229.303.390.161.32518.7%7.5%11.2%951331.90—
20211734.290.353.677.387.36623.5%8.8%14.7%41311.82—
xSLG
9
.338
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
5
84.4
Median EV
44
92.2
90th % EV
46
104.6
Barrel %
4
2.3
Hard-Hit %
22
35.5
Sweet-Spot %
0
24.9
Bat Speed
Avg
58
71.0
Median
39
71.1
90th %
44
76.3
Plate Discipline
Chase %
8
37.9
Whiff %
88
14.9
K %
95
12.1
BB %
0
2.7
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
89
≈ 13th pctl
Chase cost
-5.0r
56 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-1.6r
30 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
50.5%
220 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-3.00
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
1231211+33%65+25%834145-50%18-22%9-11%9+86%72+13%8+25%12-40%10-10%10+10%10+78%92+0%75+44%9-11%9+50%1022421CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 220