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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #126 of 239

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150Nathan Church
Nathan Church · #60
V⁻ -10VORP 1V⁺ 22
Nathan Church

Nathan Church

OF·STL
Compare
Compare
PA
330
H
72
HR
9
AVG
.237
xwOBA
.291
PPG
1.56
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj39169.249.299.369.120.29916.5%5.8%10.7%34802.04—
202694330.237
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

330 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
9
.291
xBA
32
.243
.286
.362
.125
.291
20.0%
5.5%
14.5%
9
7
147
1.56
—
20252165.179.258.250.071.24727.7%4.6%23.1%12251.19—
xSLG
18
.367
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
4
84.2
Median EV
8
87.4
90th % EV
22
102.2
Barrel %
37
7.0
Hard-Hit %
16
32.2
Sweet-Spot %
50
36.0
Bat Speed
Avg
19
68.2
Median
32
70.4
90th %
52
76.6
Plate Discipline
Chase %
2
44.2
Whiff %
53
21.1
K %
58
20.0
BB %
9
5.5
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
78
≈ 1th pctl
Chase cost
-4.4r
41 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-1.7r
29 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
50.9%
175 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-3.46
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
14+0%7115+40%1053+50%8114-25%12-44%16-43%7-8%13+71%71+56%9-33%9-33%63+0%7314+13%81112CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 175