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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #204 of 236

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150+200MJ Melendez
MJ Melendez · #60
V⁻ —VORP -7V⁺ —
MJ Melendez

MJ Melendez

OF·NYM
Compare
Compare
PA
128
H
21
HR
4
AVG
.196
xwOBA
.275
PPG
0.85
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj24103.210.286.386.176.30129.3%8.9%20.4%42401.68—
202648128.196
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

128 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
3
.275
xBA
0
.162
.317
.374
.178
.275
33.6%
10.9%
22.7%
4
0
41
0.85
—
20252366.082.152.164.082.20734.8%4.5%30.3%10-4-0.17—
2024144451.206.273.400.194.32325.1%7.8%17.3%1741971.37—
2023153603.234.317.397.163.32828.2%10.3%17.9%1662411.58—
2022137537.216.315.391.175.33824.4%12.3%12.1%1822551.86—
xSLG
2
.307
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
90
93.2
Median EV
100
106.4
90th % EV
95
110.5
Barrel %
63
10.8
Hard-Hit %
95
55.4
Sweet-Spot %
6
29.2
Bat Speed
Avg
74
72.7
Median
48
71.8
90th %
25
74.6
Plate Discipline
Chase %
51
29.2
Whiff %
7
31.3
K %
1
33.6
BB %
65
10.9
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
114
≈ 92th pctl
Chase cost
-0.3r
3 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-0.3r
6 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
30.0%
30 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-1.94
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
131224321211211CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 30