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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. 1B peers

Rank #11 of 40

Each bar is one 1B, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100Michael Busch
Michael Busch · #11
V⁻ -2VORP 11V⁺ 67
Michael Busch

Michael Busch

1B·CHC
Compare
Compare
PA
327
H
66
HR
8
AVG
.247
xwOBA
.355
PPG
2.23
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj90387.247.340.451.204.35123.9%11.2%12.7%1622112.35—
202674327.247
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
66
.355
xBA
24
.238
xSLG
.380
.401
.154
.355
22.6%
15.3%
7.3%
8
2
165
2.23
—
2025165586.264.346.528.264.38323.2%9.4%13.8%3444032.44—
2024154568.247.337.439.192.32628.5%11.1%17.4%2122721.77—
20232881.167.250.292.125.26833.3%9.9%23.4%21260.93—
51
.426
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
29
88.3
Median EV
12
88.4
90th % EV
3
98.7
Barrel %
68
11.8
Hard-Hit %
48
43.1
Sweet-Spot %
56
36.9
Bat Speed
Avg
4
65.4
Median
6
67.1
90th %
10
72.7
Plate Discipline
Chase %
76
24.4
Whiff %
35
24.3
K %
38
22.6
BB %
93
15.3
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
101
≈ 52th pctl
Chase cost
-5.5r
52 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.4r
47 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
42.2%
313 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.50
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
5123225+0%8+0%14+0%14+14%7+13%82+10%10-7%14-27%22-35%17+14%741+25%8+23%13-29%21-23%22+0%13+43%714+13%8+10%10+20%10+33%9242513CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 313