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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Michael Busch

Michael Busch

1B·CHC
Compare
Compare
PA
586
H
137
HR
34
AVG
.264
xwOBA
.383
PPG
2.44
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202674327.247.380.401.154.35522.6%15.3%7.3%821652.23—
2025165586.264
2025 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
93
.383
xBA
69
.265
xSLG
.346
.528
.264
.383
23.2%
9.4%
13.8%
34
4
403
2.44
—
2024154568.247.337.439.192.32628.5%11.1%17.4%2122721.77—
20232881.167.250.292.125.26833.3%9.9%23.4%21260.93—
94
.552
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
85
92.1
Median EV
74
94.3
90th % EV
46
105.4
Barrel %
93
17.2
Hard-Hit %
75
47.7
Sweet-Spot %
97
42.7
Bat Speed
Avg
13
67.6
Median
18
69.4
90th %
16
74.2
Plate Discipline
Chase %
77
22.7
Whiff %
41
23.1
K %
35
23.2
BB %
61
9.4
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
108
≈ 80th pctl
Chase cost
-31.0r
339 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-20.1r
317 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
46.8%
2,295 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.22
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
1+0%6+10%10+0%7352+29%21+16%25+22%55-3%32+0%30+25%12+0%8+48%21+4%49-34%71-13%79-29%52+39%23+8%13+44%27-14%37-22%49-28%65-16%43+31%26+0%12+30%20+21%24+10%20+23%22+33%2153335231CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000