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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #160 of 239

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150Max Kepler
Max Kepler · #60
V⁻ —VORP 2V⁺ —
Max Kepler

Max Kepler

OF·FA
Compare
Compare
PA
106
H
20
HR
2
AVG
.213
xwOBA
.286
PPG
1.43
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj1254.233.311.401.168.31820.0%9.4%10.7%20272.22—
202630106.213
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

106 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
7
.286
xBA
3
.207
.288
.340
.127
.286
20.8%
9.4%
11.4%
2
0
43
1.43
—
2025134475.215.302.390.175.33519.6%10.1%9.5%1852531.89—
2024107399.253.304.380.127.30420.1%5.5%14.6%811691.58—
2023136491.260.335.484.224.36421.6%9.2%12.4%2412972.18—
2022126448.226.320.346.120.34414.7%10.9%3.8%942411.91—
2021128490.211.309.413.202.34919.6%11.0%8.6%19102612.04—
202050196.228.323.439.211.34318.4%11.2%7.2%931212.42—
2019139597.251.337.518.267.34716.6%10.1%6.5%3624503.24—
2018161611.224.321.408.184.32615.7%11.6%4.1%2043392.11—
2017153568.243.314.425.182.30520.1%8.3%11.8%1963051.99—
xSLG
12
.352
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
31
88.4
Median EV
0
—
90th % EV
0
—
Barrel %
47
8.1
Hard-Hit %
57
43.2
Sweet-Spot %
86
40.5
Bat Speed
Avg
37
69.6
Median
0
—
90th %
0
—
Plate Discipline
Chase %
12
37.1
Whiff %
42
22.4
K %
49
20.8
BB %
51
9.4