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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #99 of 236

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150+200Matt Shaw
Matt Shaw · #60
V⁻ -5VORP 10V⁺ 36
Matt Shaw

Matt Shaw

3B / OF·CHC
Compare
Compare
PA
120
H
29
HR
3
AVG
.266
xwOBA
.301
PPG
1.60
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj31134.245.313.403.158.32019.4%8.4%11.0%45702.26—
202643120.266
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

120 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
16
.301
xBA
45
.253
.322
.440
.174
.301
16.7%
5.8%
10.9%
3
3
69
1.60
—
2025134429.229.301.400.171.30621.0%8.9%12.1%13182201.64—
xSLG
24
.380
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
4
85.0
Median EV
10
88.3
90th % EV
26
102.9
Barrel %
22
5.5
Hard-Hit %
21
36.3
Sweet-Spot %
79
39.6
Bat Speed
Avg
9
66.5
Median
7
67.2
90th %
13
73.0
Plate Discipline
Chase %
12
36.3
Whiff %
74
17.5
K %
70
16.7
BB %
12
5.8
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
90
≈ 15th pctl
Chase cost
-6.4r
67 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.3r
39 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
50.2%
293 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.96
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
32411+13%8+33%63+25%8+14%714-8%12-33%15-53%15-33%9+86%72+33%6+29%17-22%18-43%14-5%22+22%91+50%6+57%14+44%18+8%1252131CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 293