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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Matt Shaw

Matt Shaw

3B / OF·CHC
Compare
Compare
PA
429
H
88
HR
13
AVG
.229
xwOBA
.306
PPG
1.64
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202643120.266.322.440.174.30116.7%5.8%10.9%33691.60—
2025134429.229
2025 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

429 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
16
.306
xBA
18
.235
.301
.400
.171
.306
21.0%
8.9%
12.1%
13
18
220
1.64
—
xSLG
12
.377
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
1
84.5
Median EV
0
86.8
90th % EV
12
102.0
Barrel %
23
7.0
Hard-Hit %
5
29.5
Sweet-Spot %
58
36.6
Bat Speed
Avg
11
67.4
Median
13
69.2
90th %
24
75.0
Plate Discipline
Chase %
34
29.9
Whiff %
75
18.8
K %
47
21.0
BB %
53
8.9
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
94
≈ 28th pctl
Chase cost
-31.9r
288 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-14.6r
279 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
47.4%
1,698 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.73
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
2+17%65312+33%9+50%12-8%26+16%32+37%30+25%16+0%8+38%13-10%31-25%55-27%67-15%54+45%33+14%7+30%23+2%48-36%76-38%68-38%52+29%24+13%8+50%14+28%32+12%42+8%40+9%22+31%13+0%6+0%8+12%17+27%11253CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000