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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. SS peers

Rank #31 of 64

Each bar is one SS, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-200-1000+100Matt McLain
Matt McLain · #31
V⁻ -40VORP -9V⁺ 12
Matt McLain

Matt McLain

2B / SS·CIN
Compare
Compare
PA
275
H
48
HR
8
AVG
.203
xwOBA
.330
PPG
1.81
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj84363.233.316.393.160.31926.3%10.0%16.3%11111621.92—
202667275.203
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
43
.330
xBA
21
.231
xSLG
.310
.359
.156
.330
24.7%
12.4%
12.3%
8
11
121
1.81
—
2025150577.220.302.343.123.29128.9%9.5%19.4%15182151.43—
202389404.290.356.505.215.33228.5%7.7%20.8%16142392.69—
39
.404
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
24
87.8
Median EV
25
90.2
90th % EV
31
103.4
Barrel %
57
10.0
Hard-Hit %
32
38.8
Sweet-Spot %
86
40.6
Bat Speed
Avg
45
70.2
Median
47
71.6
90th %
33
75.3
Plate Discipline
Chase %
81
23.6
Whiff %
33
24.4
K %
24
24.7
BB %
74
12.4
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
112
≈ 89th pctl
Chase cost
-3.9r
39 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-3.7r
57 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
41.3%
378 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.02
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
1122125+43%7+0%6345-36%14-32%25-20%25-36%14+13%83+25%8+3%32-22%27-33%30-7%1552+36%14+9%11-7%15-8%13-11%9+0%6222+8%1331CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 378