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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. SS peers

Rank #35 of 68

Each bar is one SS, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150Matt McLain
Matt McLain · #35
V⁻ -40VORP -12V⁺ 12
Matt McLain

Matt McLain

2B / SS·CIN
Compare
Compare
PA
344
H
57
HR
10
AVG
.191
xwOBA
.319
PPG
1.46
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj84363.233.316.393.160.31926.3%10.0%16.3%11111621.92—
202689344.191
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

344 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
35
.319
xBA
12
.228
.293
.342
.151
.319
27.3%
11.3%
16.0%
10
13
130
1.46
—
2025150577.220.302.343.123.29128.9%9.5%19.4%15182151.43—
202389404.290.356.505.215.33228.5%7.7%20.8%16142392.69—
xSLG
35
.388
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
19
86.4
Median EV
25
90.2
90th % EV
31
103.4
Barrel %
56
9.7
Hard-Hit %
24
36.2
Sweet-Spot %
85
40.1
Bat Speed
Avg
39
69.8
Median
47
71.6
90th %
33
75.3
Plate Discipline
Chase %
79
24.9
Whiff %
32
24.9
K %
13
27.3
BB %
73
11.3
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
112
≈ 89th pctl
Chase cost
-3.9r
39 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-3.7r
57 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
41.3%
378 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.02
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
1122125+43%7+0%6345-36%14-32%25-20%25-36%14+13%83+25%8+3%32-22%27-33%30-7%1552+36%14+9%11-7%15-8%13-11%9+0%6222+8%1331CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 378