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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
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    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
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    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
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    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
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    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
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    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #41 of 236

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150+200Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. · #41
V⁻ -12VORP 23V⁺ 42
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

OF·ARI
Compare
Compare
PA
110
H
22
HR
1
AVG
.220
xwOBA
.288
PPG
1.37
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj78336.262.313.413.151.32216.0%6.4%9.7%1041802.31—
202627110.220
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

110 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
7
.288
xBA
24
.236
.278
.290
.070
.288
18.2%
7.3%
10.9%
1
1
37
1.37
—
2025133547.248.299.417.169.31513.9%5.7%8.2%19103252.44—
2024138554.278.324.434.156.32618.2%5.2%13.0%1883202.32—
2023168593.261.310.462.201.32617.4%5.6%11.8%2473832.28—
2022132494.291.344.399.108.32716.8%6.3%10.5%532732.07—
2021148541.276.322.466.190.34118.9%5.9%13.0%2113262.20—
202058225.306.350.531.225.34721.3%6.2%15.1%1131432.47—
201988343.277.330.541.264.34025.1%5.8%19.3%2062372.69—
201864263.281.312.446.165.32322.4%3.4%19.0%1111292.02—
xSLG
6
.325
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
14
86.4
Median EV
0
—
90th % EV
0
—
Barrel %
25
6.1
Hard-Hit %
15
32.9
Sweet-Spot %
55
36.6
Bat Speed
Avg
31
68.8
Median
0
—
90th %
0
—
Plate Discipline
Chase %
5
39.9
Whiff %
39
23.6
K %
62
18.2
BB %
22
7.3