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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
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    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
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    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
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    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #65 of 236

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150+200Lars Nootbaar
Lars Nootbaar · #60
V⁻ -10VORP 16V⁺ 36
Lars Nootbaar

Lars Nootbaar

OF·STL
Compare
Compare
PA
49
H
11
HR
2
AVG
.268
xwOBA
.384
PPG
2.17
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj56243.247.344.410.163.33919.5%12.4%7.1%731292.31—
20261249.268
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

49 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
88
.384
xBA
58
.262
.375
.463
.195
.384
26.5%
14.3%
12.2%
2
0
26
2.17
—
2025135583.234.326.361.127.32020.4%11.0%9.4%1342581.91—
2024106405.244.344.417.173.36219.5%12.8%6.7%1272101.98—
2023119504.260.368.417.157.35919.6%14.3%5.3%14112872.41—
2022111347.228.345.448.220.35420.5%14.7%5.8%1442151.94—
202157124.239.320.422.183.29622.6%10.5%12.1%52621.09—
xSLG
88
.518
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
99
95.3
Median EV
0
—
90th % EV
0
—
Barrel %
80
13.8
Hard-Hit %
100
62.1
Sweet-Spot %
90
41.4
Bat Speed
Avg
69
72.3
Median
0
—
90th %
0
—
Plate Discipline
Chase %
98
18.4
Whiff %
68
18.8
K %
18
26.5
BB %
89
14.3