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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #56 of 239

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150Kerry Carpenter
Kerry Carpenter · #56
V⁻ -1VORP 15V⁺ 43
Kerry Carpenter

Kerry Carpenter

OF·DET
Compare
Compare
PA
259
H
48
HR
13
AVG
.208
xwOBA
.298
PPG
1.32
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj63271.245.308.460.214.33725.5%7.1%18.4%1311402.23—
202681259.208
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

259 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
12
.298
xBA
5
.210
.280
.416
.208
.298
29.0%
6.9%
22.1%
13
0
107
1.32
—
2025142464.252.293.497.245.33822.8%3.9%18.9%2612902.04—
2024100296.284.348.587.303.38425.3%7.4%17.9%1802242.24—
2023123461.276.339.469.193.34224.9%6.9%18.0%2062632.14—
202231113.252.313.485.233.30128.3%5.3%23.0%60551.77—
xSLG
32
.385
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
57
89.8
Median EV
80
95.2
90th % EV
30
103.3
Barrel %
55
9.4
Hard-Hit %
62
44.0
Sweet-Spot %
62
37.1
Bat Speed
Avg
43
70.1
Median
56
72.4
90th %
53
76.7
Plate Discipline
Chase %
17
36.3
Whiff %
24
26.2
K %
9
29.0
BB %
21
6.9
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
92
≈ 22th pctl
Chase cost
-6.3r
56 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-1.7r
40 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
45.1%
284 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.84
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
2+17%64331+43%7+0%7+0%10+0%10+14%7+45%11-21%14-29%7-45%20-17%12+33%63+33%9-24%17-12%16-44%16+0%7445+71%7+45%1144213311CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 284