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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
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    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
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    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. 3B peers

Rank #45 of 55

Each bar is one 3B, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-200-1000+100Ke'Bryan Hayes
Ke'Bryan Hayes · #45
V⁻ -22VORP -11V⁺ -21
Ke'Bryan Hayes

Ke'Bryan Hayes

3B·CIN
Compare
Compare
PA
176
H
23
HR
4
AVG
.139
xwOBA
.299
PPG
0.70
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj32136.240.297.354.114.29219.0%7.0%12.0%33581.80—
202653176.139
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

176 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
13
.299
xBA
28
.238
.193
.236
.097
.299
19.9%
5.1%
14.8%
4
1
37
0.70
—
2025153570.235.290.306.071.28319.5%6.3%13.2%5132031.33—
2024101396.233.286.290.057.28618.9%5.8%13.1%4111351.34—
2023128526.271.310.453.182.32319.8%5.3%14.5%15102982.33—
2022137563.242.314.343.101.30521.7%8.5%13.2%7202251.64—
2021102396.257.317.373.116.29322.0%7.8%14.2%691921.88—
20202495.376.442.682.306.37021.1%9.5%11.6%51773.21—
xSLG
27
.378
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
66
90.3
Median EV
31
90.9
90th % EV
27
103.0
Barrel %
45
7.7
Hard-Hit %
29
38.5
Sweet-Spot %
67
37.7
Bat Speed
Avg
35
69.5
Median
26
70.1
90th %
13
73.0
Plate Discipline
Chase %
53
29.6
Whiff %
45
21.7
K %
58
19.9
BB %
9
5.1
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
108
≈ 78th pctl
Chase cost
-2.5r
27 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-1.8r
41 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
40.4%
198 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.20
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
12111+83%62212-43%7-21%14-38%13-20%101+29%7-33%12-43%21-62%8-25%164+33%6+9%11+9%114521121322CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 198