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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #75 of 239

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150Justin Crawford
Justin Crawford · #60
V⁻ -13VORP -1V⁺ 47
Justin Crawford

Justin Crawford

OF·PHI
Compare
Compare
PA
348
H
85
HR
2
AVG
.266
xwOBA
.280
PPG
1.46
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj81351.265.317.368.103.30820.4%7.0%13.4%4171591.96—
2026105348.266
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

348 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
5
.280
xBA
52
.253
.318
.354
.088
.280
18.7%
6.0%
12.7%
2
16
153
1.46
—
xSLG
3
.314
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
9
85.0
Median EV
38
91.7
90th % EV
11
101.0
Barrel %
4
1.5
Hard-Hit %
18
33.6
Sweet-Spot %
11
31.3
Bat Speed
Avg
14
67.1
Median
10
68.1
90th %
15
73.5
Plate Discipline
Chase %
13
37.0
Whiff %
86
15.4
K %
64
18.7
BB %
13
6.0
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
95
≈ 30th pctl
Chase cost
-4.6r
53 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.0r
33 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
51.2%
240 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.75
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
211213+0%8+33%6+0%6312+33%9-36%14-24%17-21%14+67%933+8%12-35%17-11%19-44%9+71%1433+43%7+43%7+14%75112331CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 240