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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺.

0+50+100+150+200
JP Sears

JP Sears

SP·SDP
Compare
Compare
BF
143
K %
17.5%
BB %
7.7%
xwOBA
.348
PTS
40
PPG
5.00
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj11116.011004.284.5920.6%7.1%13.5%————262.40
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

143 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
27
92.5
FB Spin
1
1965
2026
8
6
32.7
3
4
0
0
4.68
5.15
17.5%
7.7%
9.8%
.348
.273
71.8%
43.3%
40
5.00
20252828138.7912005.065.2720.0%6.1%13.9%.319.28674.5%30.2%1776.32
20243333184.31114004.394.7718.1%6.5%11.6%.329.26873.2%37.9%2728.24
20233333177.0514004.475.0221.8%7.2%14.6%.333.28077.2%30.5%2487.52
2022201276.764004.234.1017.6%8.0%9.6%.333.30873.6%41.5%1246.20
Extension
31
6.33
Results
xwOBA
13
.348
Barrel %
34
8.7
Hard-Hit %
6
45.2
K %
14
17.5
BB %
48
7.7
Chase %
12
27.2
Whiff %
17
18.7