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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. SS peers

Rank #35 of 64

Each bar is one SS, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-200-1000+100Josh Smith
Josh Smith · #35
V⁻ -19VORP -4V⁺ 13
Josh Smith

Josh Smith

1B / 2B / 3B / SS·TEX
Compare
Compare
PA
114
H
21
HR
0
AVG
.214
xwOBA
.297
PPG
1.00
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj52225.240.327.356.116.31218.5%10.0%8.4%441031.99—
202632114.214
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

114 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
13
.297
xBA
7
.218
.319
.235
.021
.297
17.5%
12.3%
5.2%
0
2
32
1.00
—
2025145564.250.335.365.115.31417.7%9.8%7.9%10122631.81—
2024153592.258.339.394.136.31120.4%7.8%12.6%13122961.93—
202384233.184.304.327.143.32323.6%10.7%12.9%61971.15—
202278255.195.308.247.052.30119.6%11.0%8.6%251091.40—
xSLG
6
.320
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
13
86.1
Median EV
28
90.8
90th % EV
18
102.0
Barrel %
18
5.1
Hard-Hit %
15
33.3
Sweet-Spot %
72
38.5
Bat Speed
Avg
9
66.5
Median
16
69.0
90th %
10
72.7
Plate Discipline
Chase %
43
30.5
Whiff %
61
19.9
K %
65
17.5
BB %
73
12.3
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
92
≈ 21th pctl
Chase cost
-6.8r
61 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.4r
46 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
47.6%
319 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.87
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
14441112+27%11-17%6+0%14+17%653+57%7+18%22-35%23-37%16-18%17+25%8+33%9-38%21-12%16-12%17-29%14+33%62+11%9+67%6+43%14+60%10211123CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 319