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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #113 of 239

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150Josh Lowe
Josh Lowe · #60
V⁻ -15VORP -8V⁺ 18
Josh Lowe

Josh Lowe

OF·LAA
Compare
Compare
PA
228
H
41
HR
8
AVG
.198
xwOBA
.292
PPG
0.97
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj51223.236.297.393.157.30727.3%7.8%19.4%78941.85—
202671228.198
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

228 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
9
.292
xBA
6
.216
.262
.338
.140
.292
28.1%
7.5%
20.6%
8
4
69
0.97
—
2025112436.219.284.365.146.29925.0%7.6%17.4%11191971.76—
2024106388.240.303.390.150.30231.7%8.2%23.5%10251431.35—
2023135503.291.336.498.207.34024.7%6.2%18.5%20323342.47—
202259198.221.284.343.122.27433.3%7.6%25.7%24510.86—
2021121.0001.0001.000.000.4680.0%50.0%-50.0%0133.00—
xSLG
35
.391
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
27
87.6
Median EV
1
85.1
90th % EV
11
100.8
Barrel %
53
8.9
Hard-Hit %
28
37.7
Sweet-Spot %
12
31.5
Bat Speed
Avg
74
72.7
Median
57
72.5
90th %
63
77.7
Plate Discipline
Chase %
9
37.6
Whiff %
15
27.9
K %
12
28.1
BB %
25
7.5
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
84
≈ 5th pctl
Chase cost
-7.8r
63 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.3r
45 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
51.7%
315 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-3.22
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
321232155+0%10+29%17+10%10+0%7+0%6+70%10+33%12-39%28-37%19-33%18+30%104+100%8+14%14-12%16-31%16-6%1741+50%6+33%6-14%7+14%71323CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 315