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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. 1B peers

Rank #17 of 40

Each bar is one 1B, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100Josh Bell
Josh Bell · #17
V⁻ -21VORP -7V⁺ 27
Josh Bell

Josh Bell

1B·MIN
Compare
Compare
PA
286
H
64
HR
8
AVG
.243
xwOBA
.311
PPG
1.92
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj90387.243.323.406.163.32719.5%10.1%9.4%1311962.18—
202672286.243
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
24
.311
xBA
32
.244
xSLG
.299
.388
.145
.311
23.4%
6.6%
16.8%
8
1
138
1.92
—
2025143536.236.325.414.178.36116.4%10.6%5.8%2202821.97—
2024147604.249.320.404.155.31719.9%8.4%11.5%1902871.95—
2023158618.246.326.418.172.34621.7%10.2%11.5%2203091.96—
2022175648.266.365.421.155.35315.7%12.5%3.2%1703902.23—
2021150569.261.348.475.214.36417.8%11.4%6.4%2703872.58—
202060223.226.311.364.138.30026.5%9.9%16.6%80941.57—
2019149615.276.370.567.291.39319.2%12.0%7.2%3704753.19—
2018153583.261.360.411.150.34017.8%13.2%4.6%1223342.18—
2017168621.255.335.465.210.33218.8%10.6%8.2%2623792.26—
45
.416
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
41
89.5
Median EV
76
94.9
90th % EV
24
102.8
Barrel %
58
10.2
Hard-Hit %
46
42.1
Sweet-Spot %
66
37.6
Bat Speed
Avg
49
70.4
Median
26
70.1
90th %
42
76.1
Plate Discipline
Chase %
40
31.4
Whiff %
41
22.9
K %
32
23.4
BB %
15
6.6
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
110
≈ 84th pctl
Chase cost
-5.3r
56 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.3r
45 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
43.5%
356 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.12
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
312111+0%7+33%6+0%9+0%12+38%814+38%8-6%16-15%27-22%18-20%20+57%75+20%10+12%17-37%27-14%21+10%10+88%844-12%8-14%7+25%8+13%8+14%72222351CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 356