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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺.

0+50+100+150+200
Jordan Montgomery

Jordan Montgomery

SP·TEX
Compare
Compare
BF
19
K %
10.5%
BB %
5.3%
xwOBA
.493
PTS
1
PPG
1.00
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj9430.012004.344.2418.1%7.5%10.6%————394.34
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

19 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
3
89.8
FB Spin
25
2180
2026
1
0
4.0
0
0
0
0
6.75
9.35
10.5%
5.3%
5.2%
.493
.286
95.2%
50.0%
1
1.00
20242521117.087106.234.4215.6%8.3%7.3%.354.34763.9%43.0%893.56
20234039229.71412003.063.4121.4%6.2%15.2%.309.29677.1%43.8%45411.35
20223533184.7107003.513.5521.7%5.0%16.7%.312.28575.7%47.9%38811.09
20213030157.367003.833.6224.5%7.7%16.8%.313.30773.7%43.0%2949.80
2020121253.033004.423.5224.4%4.7%19.7%.306.31168.7%44.0%988.17
2019214.000006.753.8526.3%0.0%26.3%.408.46271.4%21.4%42.00
20187733.330003.243.9419.8%10.3%9.5%.295.28380.4%45.7%7210.29
20173131164.7107003.833.8322.2%7.9%14.3%.308.28073.6%41.5%32410.45
Extension
83
6.80
Results
xwOBA
0
.493
Barrel %
0
18.8
Hard-Hit %
66
37.5
K %
0
10.5
BB %
92
5.3
Chase %
4
25.6
Whiff %
0
11.8