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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #143 of 239

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150Jake Mangum
Jake Mangum · #60
V⁻ -23VORP -3V⁺ -67
Jake Mangum

Jake Mangum

OF·PIT
Compare
Compare
PA
350
H
96
HR
4
AVG
.301
xwOBA
.293
PPG
2.00
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj37160.267.310.348.080.29517.6%5.2%12.4%17691.86—
202690350.301
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

350 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
10
.293
xBA
56
.256
.355
.389
.088
.293
18.3%
5.4%
12.9%
4
21
180
2.00
—
2025116429.296.330.367.071.27614.9%4.4%10.5%3262091.80—
xSLG
9
.337
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
4
83.3
Median EV
1
84.9
90th % EV
3
98.6
Barrel %
4
1.9
Hard-Hit %
5
27.5
Sweet-Spot %
8
30.2
Bat Speed
Avg
5
65.7
Median
5
66.5
90th %
8
72.2
Plate Discipline
Chase %
1
44.8
Whiff %
73
18.1
K %
66
18.3
BB %
9
5.4
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
93
≈ 23th pctl
Chase cost
-4.6r
52 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-0.9r
21 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
57.8%
192 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.84
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
233+33%653+17%6325+22%9-33%12-50%6+0%93+83%6+17%12-27%15-30%10+0%7545+29%7+17%62313511CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 192