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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Jackson Merrill

Jackson Merrill

OF·SDP
Compare
Compare
PA
594
H
162
HR
24
AVG
.292
xwOBA
.377
PPG
2.49
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202669295.212.276.357.145.32024.1%7.8%16.3%8121231.78—
2025121485.262
2024 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
90
.377
xBA
93
.296
xSLG
.319
.455
.193
.348
22.3%
6.8%
15.5%
16
1
272
2.25
—
2024164594.292.328.499.207.37717.0%4.9%12.1%24164092.49—
91
.544
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
55
89.8
Median EV
56
92.8
90th % EV
51
105.1
Barrel %
68
11.3
Hard-Hit %
58
43.9
Sweet-Spot %
93
41.6
Bat Speed
Avg
56
70.4
Median
52
71.5
90th %
54
76.7
Plate Discipline
Chase %
12
34.4
Whiff %
70
19.0
K %
73
17.0
BB %
6
4.9
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
90
≈ 17th pctl
Chase cost
-52.5r
493 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-10.7r
190 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
56.8%
2,227 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.84
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
4+17%6+11%9+8%13+0%10+0%64+44%16+14%29+37%38+39%33+31%35+23%22+14%7+45%22+21%33-13%60-13%62-11%56+58%38+47%17+43%21+21%34-12%49-7%54+4%57+74%23+33%9+50%16+58%26+16%19+56%18+60%15+27%11+17%6342+0%632CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000