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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #19 of 236

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150+200Jackson Merrill
Jackson Merrill · #19
V⁻ 0VORP 30V⁺ 80
Jackson Merrill

Jackson Merrill

OF·SDP
Compare
Compare
PA
290
H
54
HR
7
AVG
.205
xwOBA
.316
PPG
1.78
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj98422.258.314.438.180.33220.8%7.3%13.5%1592262.31—
202669290.205
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
31
.316
xBA
24
.236
xSLG
.271
.341
.136
.316
23.8%
7.9%
15.9%
7
12
123
1.78
—
2025121485.262.319.455.193.34822.3%6.8%15.5%1612722.25—
2024164594.292.328.499.207.37717.0%4.9%12.1%24164092.49—
51
.422
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
34
88.7
Median EV
59
93.3
90th % EV
44
104.5
Barrel %
60
10.2
Hard-Hit %
74
46.4
Sweet-Spot %
74
38.8
Bat Speed
Avg
64
71.7
Median
65
73.1
90th %
63
77.8
Plate Discipline
Chase %
20
34.2
Whiff %
32
24.7
K %
31
23.8
BB %
32
7.9
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
96
≈ 33th pctl
Chase cost
-8.5r
97 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-1.4r
22 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
59.4%
362 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.71
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
13311115+20%10+35%20-6%16+17%12+9%111+75%12+58%12+13%16-5%22-11%18+83%64+71%7+57%14-12%17-9%23-6%18+70%104+75%8+63%8+10%10+57%7+22%9+17%61442211CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 362