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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #10 of 236

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150+200Jackson Chourio
Jackson Chourio · #10
V⁻ 10VORP 54V⁺ 99
Jackson Chourio

Jackson Chourio

OF·MIL
Compare
Compare
PA
170
H
49
HR
9
AVG
.314
xwOBA
.359
PPG
3.35
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj97421.269.320.461.192.34321.1%6.7%14.3%16152442.52—
202637170.314
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

170 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
69
.359
xBA
61
.264
.367
.558
.244
.359
24.1%
7.6%
16.5%
9
5
124
3.35
—
2025143590.269.310.462.193.30820.5%5.1%15.4%21213882.71—
2024151573.275.328.464.189.33121.1%6.8%14.3%21253812.52—
xSLG
85
.513
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
88
92.2
Median EV
0
—
90th % EV
0
—
Barrel %
91
15.7
Hard-Hit %
78
47.8
Sweet-Spot %
51
36.5
Bat Speed
Avg
81
73.3
Median
0
—
90th %
0
—
Plate Discipline
Chase %
30
32.8
Whiff %
48
21.6
K %
29
24.1
BB %
28
7.6
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
125
≈ 99th pctl
Chase cost
-0.3r
4 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-0.3r
7 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
43.2%
44 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-1.50
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
1111411421543124221CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 44