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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #53 of 239

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150Jac Caglianone
Jac Caglianone · #53
V⁻ -22VORP 7V⁺ 48
Jac Caglianone

Jac Caglianone

1B / OF·KCR
Compare
Compare
PA
426
H
104
HR
20
AVG
.264
xwOBA
.360
PPG
1.92
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj82355.245.311.428.183.32724.4%7.8%16.7%1321712.08—
2026110426.264
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
81
.360
xBA
81
.277
xSLG
.318
.480
.216
.360
26.5%
6.3%
20.2%
20
4
211
1.92
—
202563232.157.237.295.138.32222.4%7.8%14.6%71691.10—
91
.510
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
94
93.0
Median EV
98
100.5
90th % EV
95
110.7
Barrel %
91
14.5
Hard-Hit %
97
55.3
Sweet-Spot %
40
35.1
Bat Speed
Avg
97
75.7
Median
92
75.8
90th %
92
80.5
Plate Discipline
Chase %
9
37.5
Whiff %
18
26.9
K %
17
26.5
BB %
15
6.3
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
88
≈ 12th pctl
Chase cost
-5.9r
50 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.9r
44 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
45.9%
290 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-3.01
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
33231+50%6+20%10+0%10+63%8+14%732+8%12-29%14-36%28-8%12-7%1525+56%9-38%13-53%17-35%175435+50%83533241CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 290