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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #87 of 236

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150+200Isaac Collins
Isaac Collins · #60
V⁻ -27VORP 3V⁺ 17
Isaac Collins

Isaac Collins

OF·KCR
Compare
Compare
PA
246
H
44
HR
3
AVG
.216
xwOBA
.307
PPG
1.33
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj67288.239.336.374.135.32321.9%11.8%10.2%691362.03—
202664246.216
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
21
.307
xBA
13
.225
xSLG
.336
.299
.083
.307
24.8%
13.0%
11.8%
3
3
85
1.33
—
2025135442.263.369.410.147.32321.0%12.9%8.1%9162471.83—
2024919.118.211.118.000.18352.6%10.5%42.1%01-5-0.56—
4
.314
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
20
87.3
Median EV
26
90.5
90th % EV
47
104.7
Barrel %
32
6.8
Hard-Hit %
34
39.5
Sweet-Spot %
22
32.7
Bat Speed
Avg
60
71.0
Median
65
73.1
90th %
66
77.9
Plate Discipline
Chase %
96
19.1
Whiff %
43
22.5
K %
24
24.8
BB %
80
13.0
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
102
≈ 59th pctl
Chase cost
-3.1r
31 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.3r
41 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
39.8%
221 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.43
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
11431224+0%6-12%8+33%621+43%7-8%12-37%16-26%19-30%10+45%11+33%6+11%9-18%17-64%11-44%94432+0%75112121CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 221