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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #146 of 239

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150Heriberto Hernández
Heriberto Hernández · #60
V⁻ -21VORP -5V⁺ 9
Heriberto Hernández

Heriberto Hernández

OF·MIA
Compare
Compare
PA
316
H
65
HR
16
AVG
.227
xwOBA
.340
PPG
1.75
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj31134.230.310.393.164.31627.4%10.0%17.4%42561.82—
202688316.227
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

316 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
60
.340
xBA
33
.244
.298
.448
.221
.340
27.2%
8.9%
18.3%
16
8
154
1.75
—
202586296.264.349.434.170.33526.0%10.5%15.5%1011551.80—
xSLG
77
.469
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
83
91.7
Median EV
54
93.0
90th % EV
48
104.9
Barrel %
76
11.9
Hard-Hit %
87
49.8
Sweet-Spot %
29
33.8
Bat Speed
Avg
68
72.3
Median
73
73.9
90th %
67
78.0
Plate Discipline
Chase %
71
26.2
Whiff %
5
32.0
K %
13
27.2
BB %
47
8.9
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
121
≈ 98th pctl
Chase cost
-2.5r
23 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-1.3r
26 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
37.6%
229 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-1.65
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
1123114+8%13+43%7+17%123155-19%16-17%12+17%651+17%12-17%12-10%10-40%15-53%15333+29%7+13%842412+0%611CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 229