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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. SS peers

Rank #3 of 64

Each bar is one SS, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-200-1000+100Gunnar Henderson
Gunnar Henderson · #3
V⁻ 26VORP 59V⁺ 110
Gunnar Henderson

Gunnar Henderson

SS·BAL
Compare
Compare
PA
334
H
68
HR
14
AVG
.224
xwOBA
.310
PPG
2.15
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj99427.265.341.477.213.36022.3%9.8%12.5%18142602.63—
202674334.224
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
25
.310
xBA
26
.237
xSLG
.294
.413
.189
.310
24.3%
7.8%
16.5%
14
6
159
2.15
—
2025154651.274.351.438.164.34521.0%9.5%11.5%17303682.39—
2024166719.281.366.529.248.37622.1%10.8%11.3%37215053.04—
2023158622.255.326.489.234.34825.6%9.0%16.6%28103922.48—
202235132.259.348.440.181.34425.8%12.1%13.7%41621.77—
38
.400
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
41
89.3
Median EV
78
95.1
90th % EV
48
104.9
Barrel %
46
8.5
Hard-Hit %
65
45.3
Sweet-Spot %
20
32.3
Bat Speed
Avg
77
72.9
Median
73
74.0
90th %
63
77.8
Plate Discipline
Chase %
32
32.2
Whiff %
45
22.2
K %
27
24.3
BB %
31
7.8
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
97
≈ 37th pctl
Chase cost
-8.9r
85 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-3.3r
68 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
47.5%
459 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.66
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
145+0%73+0%7+14%7+9%11+24%17+35%20+42%12+27%111+33%9+12%26-16%44-40%25-13%31+88%85+29%7-14%28-44%18-31%26-29%17+57%74+33%6+50%6+57%7+33%6+57%7231222CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 459