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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. C peers

Rank #15 of 67

Each bar is one C, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-300-200-1000+100Francisco Alvarez
Francisco Alvarez · #15
V⁻ -17VORP -231V⁺ 24
Francisco Alvarez

Francisco Alvarez

C·NYM
Compare
Compare
PA
300
H
66
HR
13
AVG
.253
xwOBA
.350
PPG
1.59
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj51203.234.314.425.191.32925.1%9.3%15.8%91981.93—
202680300.253
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

300 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
70
.350
xBA
32
.243
.343
.441
.188
.350
27.0%
10.7%
16.3%
13
0
127
1.59
—
202574277.256.339.447.191.33026.4%9.7%16.7%1101321.78—
2024108342.237.309.403.166.29825.1%8.8%16.3%1121701.57—
2023121423.209.284.437.228.30626.0%8.0%18.0%2522111.74—
20221014.167.286.500.333.41828.6%14.3%14.3%10121.20—
xSLG
76
.465
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
64
90.1
Median EV
71
94.1
90th % EV
78
107.2
Barrel %
97
17.1
Hard-Hit %
63
44.2
Sweet-Spot %
28
33.7
Bat Speed
Avg
71
72.4
Median
69
73.4
90th %
79
78.9
Plate Discipline
Chase %
38
31.8
Whiff %
8
30.1
K %
13
27.0
BB %
68
10.7
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
91
≈ 19th pctl
Chase cost
-5.5r
50 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-1.9r
39 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
42.8%
257 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.89
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
4232+33%6+33%6+38%82+25%83-45%11-10%10-33%12-8%1354+50%6+28%18-56%16-44%18-8%1252+43%7+20%10+14%7432554222CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 257