Connelly Early
SP · BOS
MLBAM 813349
Seasons
| Yr | BF | K% | BB% | xwOBA | Pts | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 84 | 23.8% | 11.9% | 0.358 | 49 | 12.25 |
| 2025 | 79 | 36.7% | 5.1% | 0.240 | 50 | 10.00 |
2026 MLB Percentile Rankings
Arsenal
FB Velocity
43
93.3
FB Spin
52
2297
Extension
73
6.69
Results
xwOBA
21
0.358
Barrel %
12
13.5
Hard-Hit %
57
38.5
K %
57
23.8
BB %
18
11.9
Chase %
46
29.4
Whiff %
30
20.5
Command & Stuff
Pitching+
Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.
Pitching+
91
≈ 18th pctl
Stuff+
99
if they swing
Command+
95
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
90
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
13.3%
47 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.040
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.002 better than avg · 102 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.074
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.044 worse than avg · 22 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 354 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)
MLB Avg.
| FF | CH | CU | SI | SL | ST | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Usage | 34% | 21% | 15% | 13% | 11% | 6% |
| MPH | 93.8 | 83.3 | 79.7 | 92.2 | 86.8 | 81.9 |
| LHP Avg | 93.2 | 84.6 | 79.0 | 93.0 | 84.7 | 81.0 |
2026 Tunneling
Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.
At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFCHCUSISLST
Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. LHP.
2026 Divergence from a Shared Origin
Every pitch type launched from the same decision-point — how far apart they end up by the plate. Bigger fan = harder arsenal to square up.
Distances from origin (in inches) show how far each pitch type separates itself from the common launch point by plate arrival. LHP.