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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. 3B peers

Rank #20 of 59

Each bar is one 3B, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-200-1000+100Colt Keith
Colt Keith · #20
V⁻ -18VORP -1V⁺ 39
Colt Keith

Colt Keith

2B / 3B·DET
Compare
Compare
PA
212
H
51
HR
4
AVG
.259
xwOBA
.322
PPG
1.39
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj69298.260.326.407.146.32720.6%8.6%12.0%821452.10—
202667212.259
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

212 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
33
.322
xBA
61
.264
.308
.381
.122
.322
20.3%
5.2%
15.1%
4
3
93
1.39
—
2025146468.256.336.413.157.34321.8%10.3%11.5%1312301.58—
2024161556.260.310.380.120.31619.8%6.5%13.3%1372581.60—
xSLG
51
.425
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
34
88.9
Median EV
92
98.0
90th % EV
47
104.8
Barrel %
44
8.4
Hard-Hit %
44
41.9
Sweet-Spot %
93
41.9
Bat Speed
Avg
47
70.3
Median
54
72.2
90th %
53
76.8
Plate Discipline
Chase %
82
23.4
Whiff %
57
20.5
K %
53
20.3
BB %
9
5.2
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
108
≈ 79th pctl
Chase cost
-3.4r
30 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.7r
43 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
42.6%
282 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.19
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
113124+0%11-12%8-10%10+33%91+38%8-24%17-25%20-33%21-13%15+43%7+23%13-6%17-17%24-29%21+0%731+0%84-33%93231112CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 282