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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. 3B peers

Rank #19 of 55

Each bar is one 3B, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-200-1000+100Colt Keith
Colt Keith · #19
V⁻ -18VORP -1V⁺ 39
Colt Keith

Colt Keith

2B / 3B·DET
Compare
Compare
PA
339
H
83
HR
8
AVG
.266
xwOBA
.331
PPG
1.56
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj69298.260.326.407.146.32720.6%8.6%12.0%821452.10—
2026108339.266
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

339 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
50
.331
xBA
73
.273
.320
.413
.147
.331
18.9%
6.5%
12.4%
8
5
169
1.56
—
2025146468.256.336.413.157.34321.8%10.3%11.5%1312301.58—
2024161556.260.310.380.120.31619.8%6.5%13.3%1372581.60—
xSLG
58
.429
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
35
88.7
Median EV
92
98.0
90th % EV
47
104.8
Barrel %
40
7.2
Hard-Hit %
44
41.2
Sweet-Spot %
97
42.4
Bat Speed
Avg
45
70.3
Median
54
72.2
90th %
53
76.8
Plate Discipline
Chase %
79
24.8
Whiff %
69
18.7
K %
64
18.9
BB %
18
6.5
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
108
≈ 79th pctl
Chase cost
-3.4r
30 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.7r
43 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
42.6%
282 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.19
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
113124+0%11-12%8-10%10+33%91+38%8-24%17-25%20-33%21-13%15+43%7+23%13-6%17-17%24-29%21+0%731+0%84-33%93231112CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 282