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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. RP peers

Rank #406 of 506

Each bar is one RP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100Chad Patrick
Chad Patrick · #60
V⁻ —VORP -62V⁺ —
Chad Patrick

Chad Patrick

SP / RP·MIL
Compare
Compare
BF
354
K %
22.0%
BB %
9.0%
xwOBA
.309
PTS
218
PPG
5.45
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj36973.044004.334.3521.4%8.2%13.3%————1213.37
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
31
92.7
FB Spin
71
2347
Extension
2026
40
6
86.7
6
4
5
6
3.32
3.68
22.0%
9.0%
13.0%
.309
.270
77.8%
38.2%
218
5.45
20253423132.0310023.483.4725.1%7.9%17.2%.308.30678.1%31.9%2427.12
14
6.08
Results
xwOBA
58
.309
Barrel %
81
6.2
Hard-Hit %
70
36.9
K %
49
22.0
BB %
26
9.0
Chase %
52
31.2
Whiff %
66
24.1
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
104
≈ 65th pctl
Stuff+
105
if they swing
Command+
101
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
105
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
8.0%
30 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.046
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.004 worse than avg · 103 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.008
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.022 better than avg · 29 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 377 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
CutterFC
37.5%88.72402+12.9+0.26.0431.7%46.8%27.5%37.9%21.1%0.220
4-Seam FastballFF
25.1%94.0

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE35°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FCFFSISVCH
Usage37%25%22%14%1%
MPH88.794.093.884.888.3
RHP Avg89.895.094.3—86.9
2278
+16.1
+9.2
6.02
12.5%
47.9%
19.2%
23.7%
4.2%
0.300
SinkerSI
22.0%93.82115+11.1+15.76.0114.3%54.7%35.9%10.3%21.4%0.310
SlurveSV
14.1%84.82389-3.4-4.86.0422.2%22.0%12.2%31.3%5.9%0.345
ChangeupCH
1.4%88.31986+5.3+13.26.050.0%75.0%25.0%0.0%0.0%0.322

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 15″FC · 18″SI · 19″CH · 19″SV · 25″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 21″FC · 36″SI · 22″CH · 35″SV · 47″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.10′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FCFFSISVCH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FCFFSISVCH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FCFFSISVCH

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.