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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #45 of 236

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150+200Ceddanne Rafaela
Ceddanne Rafaela · #45
V⁻ -25VORP 17V⁺ 39
Ceddanne Rafaela

Ceddanne Rafaela

2B / OF·BOS
Compare
Compare
PA
268
H
70
HR
7
AVG
.282
xwOBA
.296
PPG
2.17
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj90390.255.299.414.159.31521.4%4.9%16.4%11131922.14—
202666268.282
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
12
.296
xBA
31
.243
xSLG
.336
.444
.162
.296
20.5%
5.2%
15.3%
7
7
143
2.17
—
2025156589.248.295.412.164.30519.9%4.8%15.1%16203122.00—
2024156571.246.276.390.144.27726.4%2.6%23.8%15222591.66—
20232789.241.284.386.145.24231.5%4.5%27.0%23301.11—
16
.362
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
15
86.6
Median EV
27
90.6
90th % EV
4
98.9
Barrel %
26
6.2
Hard-Hit %
21
36.3
Sweet-Spot %
82
39.9
Bat Speed
Avg
15
67.9
Median
26
69.9
90th %
15
73.5
Plate Discipline
Chase %
7
38.8
Whiff %
45
22.2
K %
50
20.5
BB %
9
5.2
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
96
≈ 36th pctl
Chase cost
-5.1r
61 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.3r
37 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
48.9%
278 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.68
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
1121432+69%13535-10%10-26%19-12%16+13%15+29%72+44%16-22%9-28%18-24%21+0%10+56%914+36%14+0%12+0%9+25%82241321CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 278