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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #67 of 239

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150Casey Schmitt
Casey Schmitt · #60
V⁻ -35VORP 9V⁺ 13
Casey Schmitt

Casey Schmitt

1B / 2B / 3B / OF·SFG
Compare
Compare
PA
409
H
105
HR
21
AVG
.271
xwOBA
.355
PPG
2.42
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj84364.248.302.419.172.32021.8%6.3%15.5%1341762.10—
202697409.271
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
76
.355
xBA
93
.287
xSLG
.304
.483
.212
.355
19.8%
2.7%
17.1%
21
9
235
2.42
—
202595348.237.308.401.164.32923.9%7.8%16.1%1201491.57—
202439113.252.286.477.225.31422.1%3.5%18.6%60611.56—
202388277.206.258.324.118.28223.5%4.7%18.8%54951.08—
94
.511
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
59
89.9
Median EV
90
96.8
90th % EV
57
105.8
Barrel %
78
12.3
Hard-Hit %
67
44.8
Sweet-Spot %
90
41.0
Bat Speed
Avg
55
70.7
Median
44
71.4
90th %
44
76.3
Plate Discipline
Chase %
16
36.4
Whiff %
59
20.1
K %
58
19.8
BB %
0
2.7
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
109
≈ 83th pctl
Chase cost
-3.1r
33 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-1.9r
39 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
44.8%
232 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.14
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
12213+0%7544+17%6-11%9-36%22-43%14-43%743+33%6-25%8-15%20-43%14+30%1045+75%8+33%6+29%7-22%9+0%63153411CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 232