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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. C peers

Rank #22 of 67

Each bar is one C, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-300-200-1000+100Carter Jensen
Carter Jensen · #22
V⁻ -33VORP -194V⁺ 18
Carter Jensen

Carter Jensen

C·KCR
Compare
Compare
PA
437
H
88
HR
16
AVG
.227
xwOBA
.285
PPG
1.71
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj72293.240.317.409.169.32425.8%10.1%15.7%931331.85—
2026109437.227
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
6
.285
xBA
2
.201
xSLG
.306
.418
.191
.285
29.5%
9.8%
19.7%
16
1
186
1.71
—
20252069.300.391.550.250.44817.4%13.0%4.4%30552.75—
14
.356
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
72
90.6
Median EV
25
90.1
90th % EV
95
110.7
Barrel %
57
9.9
Hard-Hit %
57
43.3
Sweet-Spot %
24
33.1
Bat Speed
Avg
64
71.6
Median
76
74.3
90th %
69
78.2
Plate Discipline
Chase %
75
25.8
Whiff %
19
26.8
K %
9
29.5
BB %
57
9.8
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
96
≈ 33th pctl
Chase cost
-6.3r
49 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.1r
43 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
41.6%
308 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.72
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
123+0%8314+23%13+8%12-11%18+0%9+0%82+33%12-22%18-35%23-38%215+43%71+33%12+14%14-25%16-12%16-12%8+29%715+17%6+25%84521CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 308