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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #111 of 239

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150Cam Smith
Cam Smith · #60
V⁻ -47VORP -14V⁺ -6
Cam Smith

Cam Smith

OF·HOU
Compare
Compare
PA
428
H
84
HR
15
AVG
.220
xwOBA
.330
PPG
1.68
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj72313.239.317.390.151.31726.2%9.1%17.1%961341.86—
2026110428.220
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
47
.330
xBA
32
.243
xSLG
.296
.387
.167
.330
24.5%
8.2%
16.3%
15
10
185
1.68
—
2025137495.235.312.357.122.30527.7%8.7%19.0%981881.37—
58
.431
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
49
89.4
Median EV
89
96.7
90th % EV
94
110.4
Barrel %
67
11.4
Hard-Hit %
64
44.6
Sweet-Spot %
17
32.1
Bat Speed
Avg
96
75.5
Median
97
77.8
90th %
95
81.7
Plate Discipline
Chase %
55
29.2
Whiff %
18
26.9
K %
25
24.5
BB %
35
8.2
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
97
≈ 38th pctl
Chase cost
-6.7r
72 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-3.3r
61 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
48.4%
376 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.65
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
11223+57%7-14%7+43%7+50%6+50%8+0%7+50%6-16%19-43%21-22%27-33%15+50%64+31%16+21%19-26%23-35%31-15%13+44%92+44%9+31%16+9%11+0%125+50%614+0%623231CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 376