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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. C peers

Rank #4 of 66

Each bar is one C, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-300-200-1000+100Cal Raleigh
Cal Raleigh · #4
V⁻ 12VORP -150V⁺ 91
Cal Raleigh

Cal Raleigh

C·SEA
Compare
Compare
PA
189
H
28
HR
7
AVG
.168
xwOBA
.299
PPG
1.26
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj78314.224.321.472.248.35027.5%11.9%15.6%1941762.25—
202643189.168
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

189 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
15
.299
xBA
1
.189
.257
.317
.149
.299
30.2%
10.6%
19.6%
7
2
54
1.26
—
2025175706.246.360.588.342.38126.6%13.7%12.9%60145673.24—
2024157628.220.315.436.216.35028.0%11.1%16.9%3463192.03—
2023148570.232.306.455.223.33027.7%9.5%18.2%3002951.99—
2022131415.211.288.489.278.33029.4%9.2%20.2%2722321.77—
202148149.179.223.307.128.22834.9%4.7%30.2%20220.46—
xSLG
35
.399
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
22
87.4
Median EV
5
86.7
90th % EV
44
104.5
Barrel %
76
12.5
Hard-Hit %
11
31.3
Sweet-Spot %
34
33.9
Bat Speed
Avg
71
72.5
Median
75
74.2
90th %
81
79.3
Plate Discipline
Chase %
8
37.9
Whiff %
17
28.6
K %
7
30.2
BB %
63
10.6
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
81
≈ 3th pctl
Chase cost
-12.9r
106 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.9r
54 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
52.8%
477 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-3.32
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
1133341+50%12+25%12+21%19+31%16+38%822+60%10+22%23-16%19-19%31-4%25+58%12+55%11+67%9-9%23-42%24-30%27-23%22+67%6+14%7+20%10+33%12+22%18+13%16+23%13+29%7243+14%721CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 477