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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #218 of 236

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150+200Brice Matthews
Brice Matthews · #60
V⁻ —VORP -12V⁺ —
Brice Matthews

Brice Matthews

2B / OF·HOU
Compare
Compare
PA
186
H
36
HR
6
AVG
.209
xwOBA
.277
PPG
0.90
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj28119.214.290.373.160.29832.6%8.9%23.8%45421.51—
202659186.209
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

186 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
3
.277
xBA
1
.201
.261
.355
.146
.277
31.2%
6.5%
24.7%
6
2
53
0.90
—
20251547.167.222.452.285.29442.6%4.3%38.3%41211.40—
xSLG
21
.369
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
8
85.5
Median EV
0
81.8
90th % EV
2
97.5
Barrel %
56
9.6
Hard-Hit %
36
40.0
Sweet-Spot %
26
33.0
Bat Speed
Avg
49
70.4
Median
48
71.7
90th %
44
76.3
Plate Discipline
Chase %
75
24.9
Whiff %
1
35.8
K %
7
31.2
BB %
15
6.5
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
113
≈ 90th pctl
Chase cost
-1.8r
20 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.2r
30 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
40.0%
200 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-1.99
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
1231+33%6+10%10433-11%9-39%18-21%19+0%1153+11%9-43%7-42%12-30%10-33%9+0%62555+14%721132111CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 200