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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Austin Wells

Austin Wells

C·NYY
Compare
Compare
PA
415
H
81
HR
13
AVG
.228
xwOBA
.344
PPG
1.66
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202683269.174.273.298.124.30526.4%11.2%15.2%82740.89—
2025129449.219
2024 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

415 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
66
.344
xBA
48
.248
.281
.435
.216
.295
26.3%
6.7%
19.6%
21
5
245
1.90
—
2024129415.228.327.394.166.34421.0%11.3%9.7%1322141.66—
20231975.229.260.486.257.37418.7%4.0%14.7%40442.32—
xSLG
57
.450
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
16
87.5
Median EV
28
91.0
90th % EV
30
103.8
Barrel %
50
9.1
Hard-Hit %
30
38.9
Sweet-Spot %
48
35.6
Bat Speed
Avg
60
70.8
Median
63
72.3
90th %
40
76.0
Plate Discipline
Chase %
68
25.3
Whiff %
35
24.6
K %
50
21.0
BB %
89
11.3
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
112
≈ 88th pctl
Chase cost
-26.2r
267 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-9.7r
178 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
49.1%
1,671 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.15
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
+0%64+30%10+8%13+0%14+0%75+33%9+22%36+8%53+24%46+24%21+21%14+0%11+35%34+9%44-19%79-20%76-20%50+47%34+25%12+35%23+3%37-15%46-11%45-15%39+63%164+21%14+26%19+15%27-12%16+73%11+43%7125+14%742CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000