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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #104 of 239

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150Austin Hays
Austin Hays · #60
V⁻ -10VORP -4V⁺ 34
Austin Hays

Austin Hays

OF·CHW
Compare
Compare
PA
45
H
11
HR
2
AVG
.250
xwOBA
.303
PPG
1.46
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj47202.246.302.404.158.31324.1%6.6%17.5%62891.90—
20261345.250
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

45 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
19
.303
xBA
94
.288
.267
.409
.159
.303
28.9%
2.2%
26.7%
2
0
19
1.46
—
2025108417.265.319.451.186.30325.7%7.0%18.7%1572502.31—
202482255.255.306.396.141.29523.1%3.5%19.6%52961.17—
2023149566.275.328.444.169.31024.9%6.7%18.2%1652831.90—
2022151582.250.307.413.163.30119.6%5.8%13.8%1622861.89—
2021137530.256.308.460.204.31620.2%5.3%14.9%2263302.41—
202035134.279.333.393.114.29118.7%6.0%12.7%42671.91—
20191975.309.373.574.265.35317.3%9.3%8.0%42603.16—
20171963.217.242.317.100.24225.4%3.2%22.2%10191.00—
xSLG
35
.388
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
24
87.4
Median EV
88
96.2
90th % EV
24
102.8
Barrel %
33
6.5
Hard-Hit %
92
51.6
Sweet-Spot %
19
32.3
Bat Speed
Avg
38
69.7
Median
42
71.3
90th %
44
76.3
Plate Discipline
Chase %
7
38.5
Whiff %
0
34.4
K %
9
28.9
BB %
0
2.2
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
76
≈ 1th pctl
Chase cost
-4.2r
33 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-1.4r
17 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
53.5%
159 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-3.52
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
11223313334-18%115-33%6+17%6+13%8-22%9-31%13+0%623+45%11+0%7+8%1242331CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 159